Discussion:
[Archille's Heel of BRI?] Growth Without Industrialization? by Dani Rodrik
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ltlee1
2017-10-11 10:35:03 UTC
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The author raises two questions:
1. Is there a new model of economic growth?
2. Is RAPID growth without industrialization sustainable?

I add a third one.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/poor-economies-growing-without-industrializing-by-dani-rodrik-2017-10

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Growth Without Industrialization?

CAMBRIDGE – Despite low world prices for the commodities on which they tend to depend, many of the world’s poorest economies have been doing well. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth has slowed precipitously since 2015, but this reflects specific problems in three of its largest economies (Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa). Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Rwanda are all projected to achieve growth of 6% or higher this year. In Asia, the same is true of India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

This is all good news, but it is also puzzling. Developing economies that manage to grow rapidly on a sustained basis without relying on natural-resource booms – as most of these countries have for a decade or more – typically do so through export-oriented industrialization. But few of these countries are experiencing much industrialization. The share of manufacturing in low-income Sub-Saharan countries is broadly stagnant – and in some cases declining. And despite much talk about “Make in India,” one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s catchphrases, the country shows little indication of rapid industrialization.

Manufacturing became a powerful escalator of economic development for low-income countries for three reasons. First, it was relatively easy to absorb technology from abroad and generate high-productivity jobs. Second, manufacturing jobs did not require much skill: farmers could be turned into production workers in factories with little investment in additional training. And, third, manufacturing demand was not constrained by low domestic incomes: production could expand virtually without limit, through exports.

But things have been changing. It is now well documented that manufacturing has become increasingly skill-intensive in recent decades. Along with globalization, this has made it very difficult for newcomers to break into world markets for manufacturing in a big way and replicate the experience of Asia’s manufacturing superstars. Except for a handful of exporters, developing economies have been experiencing premature deindustrialization. It seems as if the escalator has been taken away from the lagging countries.

What, then, are we to make of the recent boom in some of the world’s poorest countries? Have these countries a discovered a new growth model?

...

The difference seems to be explained by the fact that the expansion of urban, modern sectors in recent high-growth episodes is driven by domestic demand rather than export-oriented industrialization. In particular, the African model appears to be underpinned by positive aggregate demand shocks generated either by transfers from abroad or by productivity growth in agriculture.

...

Low-income African countries can sustain moderate rates of productivity growth into the future, on the back of steady improvements in human capital and governance. Continued convergence with rich-country income levels seems achievable. But the evidence suggests that the growth rates brought about recently by rapid structural change are exceptional and may not last.
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Resty Wyse
2017-10-11 15:40:00 UTC
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Post by ltlee1
1. Is there a new model of economic growth?
We will find out soon enough if there is one. As of now, no, there is no new model of ecoonomic growth.
Post by ltlee1
2. Is RAPID growth without industrialization sustainable?
There is no growth without industrialization. Humanity lived the same way for thousands of year without industrialization. The steam engine changed all of us.
Post by ltlee1
I add a third one.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/poor-economies-growing-without-industrializing-by-dani-rodrik-2017-10
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Growth Without Industrialization?
We have seen it for thousands of years without industrialization. There was no growth, no change of life. Education, new ways of doing things,... are the way of life!!!
Post by ltlee1
CAMBRIDGE – Despite low world prices for the commodities on which they tend to depend, many of the world’s poorest economies have been doing well. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth has slowed precipitously since 2015, but this reflects specific problems in three of its largest economies (Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa). Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Rwanda are all projected to achieve growth of 6% or higher this year. In Asia, the same is true of India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
This is all good news, but it is also puzzling. Developing economies that manage to grow rapidly on a sustained basis without relying on natural-resource booms – as most of these countries have for a decade or more – typically do so through export-oriented industrialization. But few of these countries are experiencing much industrialization. The share of manufacturing in low-income Sub-Saharan countries is broadly stagnant – and in some cases declining. And despite much talk about “Make in India,” one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s catchphrases, the country shows little indication of rapid industrialization.
Manufacturing became a powerful escalator of economic development for low-income countries for three reasons. First, it was relatively easy to absorb technology from abroad and generate high-productivity jobs. Second, manufacturing jobs did not require much skill: farmers could be turned into production workers in factories with little investment in additional training. And, third, manufacturing demand was not constrained by low domestic incomes: production could expand virtually without limit, through exports.
But things have been changing. It is now well documented that manufacturing has become increasingly skill-intensive in recent decades. Along with globalization, this has made it very difficult for newcomers to break into world markets for manufacturing in a big way and replicate the experience of Asia’s manufacturing superstars. Except for a handful of exporters, developing economies have been experiencing premature deindustrialization. It seems as if the escalator has been taken away from the lagging countries.
What, then, are we to make of the recent boom in some of the world’s poorest countries? Have these countries a discovered a new growth model?
...
The difference seems to be explained by the fact that the expansion of urban, modern sectors in recent high-growth episodes is driven by domestic demand rather than export-oriented industrialization. In particular, the African model appears to be underpinned by positive aggregate demand shocks generated either by transfers from abroad or by productivity growth in agriculture.
...
Low-income African countries can sustain moderate rates of productivity growth into the future, on the back of steady improvements in human capital and governance. Continued convergence with rich-country income levels seems achievable. But the evidence suggests that the growth rates brought about recently by rapid structural change are exceptional and may not last.
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s***@gmail.com
2017-10-13 12:42:07 UTC
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Post by Resty Wyse
We will find out soon enough if there is one. As of now, no, there is no new model of ecoonomic growth.
There is no growth without industrialization. Humanity lived the same way for thousands of year without industrialization. The steam engine changed all of us.
We have seen it for thousands of years without industrialization. There was no growth, no change of life. Education, new ways of doing things,... are the way of life!!!
But, Yale Guen Mar, haven't you been trying to improve the taro patches of your Hmong neighbors without going the path of industrialization?

It is another matter that neither your Hmong neighbors nor their dogs approve of your method. That is why you keep getting chased down Twilight Avenue (often in the nude with a piece of shit still hanging from your asshole) by the dogs of your Hmong neighbors.

****************

AFP
February 1, 2013

Merced Resident's Eureka Moment on Twilight Avenue in Merced, CA

An old man was found running naked on Twilight Avenue trying to escape a dog barking furiously at him.

Police reports that the old man was shitting in the taro patch of a Hmong resident. Apparently the old man was under the impression that he was doing his Hmong neighbor a favor by fertilizing the taro patch with his shit.

But the dog in the Hmong household thought otherwise. He started barking furiously at the old man defecating in the taro patch. When the old man didn't budge, the dog charged at the shitting man squatting on the taro pitch engrossed in defecating.

When the man saw the dog charging at him, he must have decided that the dog's bite was going to be worse than its bark.

It was at this point that the old man had his eureka moment. He jumped up and started running toward 3851 Twilight Avenue with a piece of shit still dangling from his asshole.

The commotion caused a member of the Hmong household to rush out. He didn't want the dog to bite the old man in case the dog caught rabies from the fleeing disheveled man who certainly looked as if he was a carrier of rabies.

In the meantime, another Hmong neighbor had called 911. By the time the police arrived, the old man with shit dangling from his asshole had managed to disappear from the scene.

The police are investigating. It doesn't think that the man was armed with anything other than the piece of shit dangling from his asshole. Nevertheless, people in the neighborhood have been advised not to attempt a citizen's arrest if they encounter the man. They are warned to consider the man to be insane and dangerous and to report any sighting to the police immediately.

****************
ltlee1
2017-10-13 00:01:44 UTC
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Post by ltlee1
1. Is there a new model of economic growth?
2. Is RAPID growth without industrialization sustainable?
I add a third one.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/poor-economies-growing-without-industrializing-by-dani-rodrik-2017-10
------------------
Growth Without Industrialization?
CAMBRIDGE – Despite low world prices for the commodities on which they tend to depend, many of the world’s poorest economies have been doing well. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth has slowed precipitously since 2015, but this reflects specific problems in three of its largest economies (Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa). Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Rwanda are all projected to achieve growth of 6% or higher this year. In Asia, the same is true of India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
This is all good news, but it is also puzzling. Developing economies that manage to grow rapidly on a sustained basis without relying on natural-resource booms – as most of these countries have for a decade or more – typically do so through export-oriented industrialization. But few of these countries are experiencing much industrialization. The share of manufacturing in low-income Sub-Saharan countries is broadly stagnant – and in some cases declining. And despite much talk about “Make in India,” one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s catchphrases, the country shows little indication of rapid industrialization.
Manufacturing became a powerful escalator of economic development for low-income countries for three reasons. First, it was relatively easy to absorb technology from abroad and generate high-productivity jobs. Second, manufacturing jobs did not require much skill: farmers could be turned into production workers in factories with little investment in additional training. And, third, manufacturing demand was not constrained by low domestic incomes: production could expand virtually without limit, through exports.
But things have been changing. It is now well documented that manufacturing has become increasingly skill-intensive in recent decades. Along with globalization, this has made it very difficult for newcomers to break into world markets for manufacturing in a big way and replicate the experience of Asia’s manufacturing superstars. Except for a handful of exporters, developing economies have been experiencing premature deindustrialization. It seems as if the escalator has been taken away from the lagging countries.
What, then, are we to make of the recent boom in some of the world’s poorest countries? Have these countries a discovered a new growth model?
...
The difference seems to be explained by the fact that the expansion of urban, modern sectors in recent high-growth episodes is driven by domestic demand rather than export-oriented industrialization. In particular, the African model appears to be underpinned by positive aggregate demand shocks generated either by transfers from abroad or by productivity growth in agriculture.
...
Low-income African countries can sustain moderate rates of productivity growth into the future, on the back of steady improvements in human capital and governance. Continued convergence with rich-country income levels seems achievable. But the evidence suggests that the growth rates brought about recently by rapid structural change are exceptional and may not last.
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China's own example of growth/development without industrialization.


During the period from 1996 to 2006, China invested about $500 million to rehab a region the size of Belgium. Basically, it changed desert into productive agricultural land.
ltlee1
2017-10-13 12:26:37 UTC
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Post by ltlee1
Post by ltlee1
1. Is there a new model of economic growth?
2. Is RAPID growth without industrialization sustainable?
I add a third one.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/poor-economies-growing-without-industrializing-by-dani-rodrik-2017-10
------------------
Growth Without Industrialization?
CAMBRIDGE – Despite low world prices for the commodities on which they tend to depend, many of the world’s poorest economies have been doing well. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth has slowed precipitously since 2015, but this reflects specific problems in three of its largest economies (Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa). Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Rwanda are all projected to achieve growth of 6% or higher this year. In Asia, the same is true of India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
This is all good news, but it is also puzzling. Developing economies that manage to grow rapidly on a sustained basis without relying on natural-resource booms – as most of these countries have for a decade or more – typically do so through export-oriented industrialization. But few of these countries are experiencing much industrialization. The share of manufacturing in low-income Sub-Saharan countries is broadly stagnant – and in some cases declining. And despite much talk about “Make in India,” one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s catchphrases, the country shows little indication of rapid industrialization.
Manufacturing became a powerful escalator of economic development for low-income countries for three reasons. First, it was relatively easy to absorb technology from abroad and generate high-productivity jobs. Second, manufacturing jobs did not require much skill: farmers could be turned into production workers in factories with little investment in additional training. And, third, manufacturing demand was not constrained by low domestic incomes: production could expand virtually without limit, through exports.
But things have been changing. It is now well documented that manufacturing has become increasingly skill-intensive in recent decades. Along with globalization, this has made it very difficult for newcomers to break into world markets for manufacturing in a big way and replicate the experience of Asia’s manufacturing superstars. Except for a handful of exporters, developing economies have been experiencing premature deindustrialization. It seems as if the escalator has been taken away from the lagging countries.
What, then, are we to make of the recent boom in some of the world’s poorest countries? Have these countries a discovered a new growth model?
...
The difference seems to be explained by the fact that the expansion of urban, modern sectors in recent high-growth episodes is driven by domestic demand rather than export-oriented industrialization. In particular, the African model appears to be underpinned by positive aggregate demand shocks generated either by transfers from abroad or by productivity growth in agriculture.
...
Low-income African countries can sustain moderate rates of productivity growth into the future, on the back of steady improvements in human capital and governance. Continued convergence with rich-country income levels seems achievable. But the evidence suggests that the growth rates brought about recently by rapid structural change are exceptional and may not last.
-----------------
China's own example of growth/development without industrialization.
http://youtu.be/PFkNbNJRPFM
During the period from 1996 to 2006, China invested about $500 million to rehab a region the size of Belgium. Basically, it changed desert into productive agricultural land.
More important, such green infrastructure projects will also greatly increase the happiness of the people involved. If one adds GNH (a la Bhutan), growth without industrialization could be a better deal.

(BTW, capitalism is great at delivering pleasure to individuals. Pleasure + motivation form driving engine of capitalism. However, pleasure is not happiness. In the US, single mindedness pursuit of individual pleasure has led to widespread addiction as well as depression.)
Resty Wyse
2017-10-13 16:33:05 UTC
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Post by ltlee1
More important, such green infrastructure projects will also greatly increase the happiness of the people involved. If one adds GNH (a la Bhutan), growth without industrialization could be a better deal.
How can there be growth today without industrialization? Somewhere along the line, someone will come up with a better idea of doing things, and that will be the start of industialization.
Post by ltlee1
(BTW, capitalism is great at delivering pleasure to individuals.
Yes, prostitution and slavery for the heartless few. To most of humanity, working endless hours just to make enough to live by. Capitalism without government control is reckless.
Post by ltlee1
Pleasure + motivation form driving engine of capitalism. However, pleasure is not happiness. In the US, single mindedness pursuit of individual pleasure has led to widespread addiction as well as depression.)
s***@gmail.com
2017-10-14 19:28:39 UTC
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Post by Resty Wyse
How can there be growth today without industrialization? Somewhere along the line, someone will come up with a better idea of doing things, and that will be the start of industialization.
Yes, prostitution and slavery for the heartless few. To most of humanity, working endless hours just to make enough to live by. Capitalism without government control is reckless.
Yale Guen Mar, you hope to be 80 next February. And you are still dreaming of prostitutes? Why?

ale Guen Mar, you are a dirty old man. But you lost your ability to have sex many years ago. That is why you must continually talk dirty to get sexual pleasure vicariously.

The "best" you are capable of is to finger-fuck pigs in the assholes. That's what you have been doing for years. You have infected asshples of many a pig with your STD-ravaged middle fingers.

Here's an apt epitaph for the quintessential idiot Yale Guen Mar:

Here lies the body of Mar Guen Yale,
A lying, thieving, cheating rascal ;
He always lied, and now he lies,
He has no soul and cannot rise.

Heck, with a catheter inside him 24/7, 76-year old Yale Guen Mar can't even rise to the occasion for sex.
w***@yahoo.com.sg
2017-10-15 00:05:40 UTC
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Western critics spend their time looking for China's Archille's Heel everywhere.

Wakalukong

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