Discussion:
賴清德雙十演說的野心
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ltlee1
2024-10-13 17:07:17 UTC
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https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20241013002917-262110?chdtv

"賴清德本次演說,既有分化兩岸之意,也有分化台灣內部的用心。演說中,賴清德高頻率提及「中華民國」,甚至未提蔡英文的「中華民國台灣」稱法。今次,賴清德看似與馬英九一樣,公開講「中華民國萬歲」,實際上,這是對「兩岸同屬一個中國」的分化。這施加在台灣內部,即表現為通過語言的相似性,向藍營支持者傳達不搞「台獨」,擁護「中華民國」的感覺。更有表達,國民黨的話語體系已落後,借此替代國民黨的政治影響力,其實把在意識形態上堅持「中華民國」、支持藍營的民意進行收編。

如果不及時阻斷賴清德對國民黨的傳統支持者的「挖牆腳」行徑,國民黨今後的危機會更大。長期以來,民進黨將「中華民國」當成政治「神牌」,而在兩岸問題上,大陸與國民黨最大的分歧就在於「中華民國」問題上。對大陸來說,兩岸之間所言的「中華民國」已經是「過去時」。大陸認為,「中華民國」是中國朝代更替過程中的一個政權,它現在已經不具備合法性。民進黨據此,才有別有用心地、「耐心地」將「中華民國」端出。"
ltlee1
2024-10-16 11:39:51 UTC
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"中共解放軍「聯合利劍-2024B」演習在短短一天內結束,陸方此次演練科目不包括實彈射擊、也沒有將金門海域畫定為演習區,更多著墨於「對內文宣」與「對台文攻」,最大程度確保了台海航行自由與兩岸人員往來。整體上賴政府應處也算克制,國安高層召開應變會議、國軍及時釋出影片安定人心,兩岸關係經歷一場風雨,但有望回歸風平浪靜。

各自節制 和統政策不變

比較近年來幾場大型軍演,這一次的「聯合利劍-2024B」可以用「點」字來概括,具體而言有三層涵義:其一是「點穴」,共軍此次演習科目包括「要港要域封控」,雖然沒有實質封控,但戳中了台灣禁不起戰爭或封鎖的死穴;其二是「點醒」,大陸此次對台輿論戰規模遠超過軍事,其中一個重要目標就是試圖讓台灣民眾認識到賴清德高喊中華民國背後仍然是「兩國論」;其三是「點到為止」,大陸軍演保持相對克制並通報美方,既是避免在美國大選前夕觸發「十月驚奇」,也是宣示和平統一路線不變,武力只是備而不用的最後選項。"

https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20241015004790-262101?chdtv
ltlee1
2024-10-17 18:52:53 UTC
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Many discussions on Lai's recognizing the ROC with a 113 years of
history. He is certainly breaking with more traditional TI supporters
who see Taiwan's (Taiwan as an independent nation) history began with
the ROC took over such as Tsai.

But the question is toward what end?

Currently, many in Taiwan see Taiwan Independence as a dead end. Many
DPP members wanted to discard the ROC as Taiwan's official name or to
change the ROC Constitution at a minimum. But all such motion and
emotion were suppressed by the high level DPP members. They dare not.
Looking out to the future, time is really not on the side of those who
still want Taiwan Independence.

Some younger generation from the TI heartland still don't know they are
currently citizens of the ROC and/or don't recognize the legitimacy of
the ROC. But most educated people understand the idiocy of assuming the
Taiwan is really the ROT, not ROC. Lai minority position also force him
to embrace the ROC.

The question now is whether Lai, the golden grandson (3rd generation
leader) of the TI movement, is prepared to gamble. Would Lai declare
Taiwan independence without explicit approval of the US? This would
certainly force the PROC to act. And hopefully, Lai's declaration could
cause the West to rise up against the PROC in support of an independent
ROC aka ROT ?

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