Discussion:
川普力挺比特幣的真正盤算─美中金融新戰場
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ltlee1
2024-11-27 12:56:09 UTC
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"比特幣之所以能於近年快速崛起,很大的原因在於,它成功挑戰了美元作為全球最重要國際貨幣的地位,由於美國貨幣政策的外溢效果讓新興國家吃足苦頭,美國廣印鈔票的作法,讓持有者的資產持續被稀釋,因此開始尋找可以取而代之的其他資產,貨幣數量固定的比特幣在此氛圍下竄起,並成為美國金融監理單位的眼中釘。

川普要面對美元逐漸不受到信任的現實、俄羅斯主導去美元化的壓力,並處理當貨幣政策轉向,美元和其他國家貨幣利差縮減、國際資金出走的困境。此時掌握了為數龐大比特幣的美國,如能成功將其打造成另一「美國政府掛保證的金融資產」,營造價格上揚的預期,資金即使不願繼續擺放於美元部位,轉到比特幣可成為另一種選項,不至脫離美國所能掌控的勢力範圍,轉向其他國家的貨幣或投入黃金的懷抱。

換言之,川普之所以支持比特幣,不只是回饋力挺他的幣券金主,也不能僅用他鼓勵創新、反對官僚來解讀,其背後要持續緊握金融霸權的用心更不能輕忽。

台灣和大陸一樣,一直以來對於比特幣是排斥的,頂多只承認它是一種金融商品,對於民間持有和交易限制頗多,監理機關也一再提醒要注意風險,並認為很可能被利用為洗錢的新途徑。可一旦比特幣在美國新政府的刻意扶持下,不只廣泛的流通,甚至將其提升到可作為交易工具的準貨幣地位,並列入國家儲備的項目之一時,要如何面對此「另一種形式美元」的創新金融商品,對監理部門的傳統思惟將形成一大挑戰,該如何因應得趁早未雨綢繆。"

Probably new PONZI scheme is more appropriate.
ltlee1
2024-11-28 15:41:07 UTC
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"President-elect Donald Trump has said many negative things about
cryptocurrencies. Their value is “based on thin air,” he remarked; they
can “facilitate unlawful behavior.” Bitcoin “seems like a scam,” he told
Fox Business in 2021. “I don’t like it because it’s another currency
competing against the dollar.” Things change. This year, Mr. Trump
proposed that “if bitcoin is going to the moon, I want America to be the
nation that leads the way.”

There are plausible explanations for the change of heart. None, however,
are reassuring, given cryptocurrencies’ track record. In 15 years, they
have proved especially useful for illicit activities, and not any better
than conventional currencies for much else. Either Mr. Trump has
conducted some novel — and faulty — policy analysis, or he is seeking
personal gain.

One motivation for Mr. Trump’s crypto turn seems clear: During his
campaign, he appealed to the burgeoning crypto lobby, a motley group of
techie libertarians and opportunists seeking easy money to whom he
promised a national crypto reserve (which would offer crypto speculators
an opportunity to monetize their investment on the U.S. government’s
dime). Another concerning possibility: Mr. Trump himself appears to be
trying to cash in on cryptocurrency, raising a new set of questions
about the conflicts of interest he will bring to the Oval Office.

In mid-September, weeks before the election, Mr. Trump announced his
newest business project: World Liberty Financial, a somewhat nebulous
venture that will provide a platform for people to borrow, lend and earn
interest on crypto. Mr. Trump apparently won’t be a “director, founder,
or employee of, or manager, owner or operator” of the thing, according
to the “Gold Paper” that lays out plans for the enterprise. He will
serve as “Chief Crypto Advocate.” His sons, Donald Jr., Eric and Barron,
will serve as “Web3 Ambassadors.”"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/27/crypto-bitcoin-trump-conflict-interest/

WashingtonPost fails to mention the US government needs more people to
buy and hold US dollar.

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