Leveraging uncertainty against China and US

[ltlee1]

"To maximise the effectiveness of any negotiating strategy, Trump would
not impose high tariffs immediately. Instead, he would gradually phase
them in over a two-year or even three-year period, thereby steadily
intensifying economic pressure. “I have spoken to President Trump,
spoken to his team, and I think everyone is on board with a kind of
forward guidance or phased-in tariff,” Bessent said. “So, you say to
President Xi, 60% might be 2.5% a month for 24 months, tell us when
you’ve had enough.” In another Bloomberg interview, he suggested a
36-month phase-in. “I think one of the misconceptions is that we would
snap into tariffs on day one. It would be phased in, and other countries
would be given the opportunity to open their markets.”

The goal of Trump’s trade negotiating strategy could be very ambitious.
“We are at a key geopolitical moment. I see the need for a grand
economic reordering. Something going back to Bretton Woods or the Treaty
of Versailles,” the economist said. “There is a very good chance that we
are going to have that over the next four years. I want to be part of
this.” The ultimate objective would be to create a new era of
international cooperation, involving military and geopolitical
partnership, balanced trade and consistency of national policies, to
replace neoliberal globalisation.

Bessent has described a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” that would be more complex
and far-reaching than the Plaza and Louvre Accords of the Eighties
because it would have to embrace China and perhaps other geopolitical
rivals of the US which pose potential security risks. This new accord
would need to divide the world economy into three groups depending on
how closely they are willing to cooperate with US objectives. Bessent
proposed that “[W]e should make it very clear that there is a green, a
yellow, and a red bucket and we let everyone know where they are. Here’s
what we ask of you and you can choose which bucket you want to be in and
here’s what you get for being in the bucket.”"

https://unherd.com/newsroom/can-scott-bessent-moderate-trumps-tariff-policy/

[ltlee1]

Here is one criteria for one of the 3 buckets:

"In a post on Truth Social Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump said
he would impose a 100% tariff on the BRICS geopolitical coalition of
non-Western countries if the group moves away from trading using the
U.S. dollar.

“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the
Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote. “We require a
commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new
BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S.
Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye
to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”

“They can go find another ‘sucker!’ There is no chance that the BRICS
will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country
that tries should wave goodbye to America,” the president-elect added."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-threatens-100-tariff-brics-countries-abandon-us-dollar-rcna182300

Will Trump's threat slow down de-dollarization trend?