ltlee1
2024-10-23 15:19:36 UTC
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Permalinkcould be slipping further away from Vice President Harris.
To be sure, Democrats still think Harris can defeat former President
Trump. The margins are so close in the seven battleground states likely
to decide the contest, a shift toward either candidate or a mistake in
the polling could be decisive.
At the same time, Democrats are privately expressing worry that
battleground polling appears to be moving in Trump’s direction over the
last two weeks.
Cracks in the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are
starting to show, with Senate incumbents in both Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin now in toss-up races, according to the Cook Political Report.
The three northern states generally move in the same direction in the
presidential race, but Harris has been losing ground to Trump in polls,
particularly in Wisconsin. In Michigan, doubts among Arab American
voters are worrying Democrats.
None of this is making Democrats feel better about an Election Day that
is now less than two weeks away.
“Everyone keeps saying, ‘It’s close.’ Yes, it’s close, but are things
trending our way? No. And no one wants to openly admit that,” one
Democratic strategist said. “Could we still win? Maybe. Should anyone be
even slightly optimistic right now? No.”
Another strategist was even more dour when asked about the current state
of play: “If this is a vibe election, the current vibes ain’t great.”
Harris could have another path to victory that would involve winning
Pennsylvania, losing another blue wall state but winning North Carolina
and Nevada. But neither of those states are firmly in her camp, nor are
two other swing states, Arizona and Georgia.
Jon Ralston, a veteran political journalist in Nevada, also reported a
rare statewide lead among Republicans who have voted early in the state.
“It’s too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for
Republicans in Nevada,” Ralston wrote in his popular blog at The Nevada
Independent. He later noted that overnight, Democrats had cut into the
Republican advantage, but the GOP maintained a 2 percentage point lead
as of Tuesday."
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4947840-democratic-fear-trump-battleground-polls/