https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/03/iran-israel-hezbollah-biden-netanyahu-war/
"Iran saw the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza as a strategic reset for the
Middle East. It meant the return of the Palestinians’ plight to center
stage, and the regional and global reaction to the war quickly created a
diplomatic quandary for Israel. Since the initial attack by Hamas on
Oct. 7, 2023, Tehran and its allies in the so-called axis of resistance
have sought to deepen this quandary while avoiding a larger regional war
that could bring Iran into direct confrontation with the United States.
Israel, by contrast, wants to break out of its quandary by expanding the
Gaza war and putting Iran and the United States on a collision course.
The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East
to support Israel against attacks by Iran and Hezbollah. And Washington
will enter the fray in Israel’s corner if the confrontation between
Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran escalates into open warfare.
Tehran concluded that the killing of Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran, and
then the assassination of Nasrallah in his Beirut stronghold, were aimed
at baiting Iran into that trap. Since Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s
dilemma has been how to continue its strategy without playing into
Israel’s hands. It decided not to react to Haniyeh’s assassination, but
it could not do that when Nasrallah was killed.
..
Iran’s response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus in
April—which involved launching approximately 300 drones and missiles
against Israel—did not deter further Israeli escalations that came in
the form of the subsequent assassinations of Haniyeh and Nasrallah. And
this latest missile attack is unlikely to definitively deter Israel
either.
..
Iran believes that Israel wants to resolve all its security issues in
the region once and for all through a larger war that will crush Hamas,
Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and hobble Iran. That will be a long war—and
one that demands U.S. involvement."