On Ukraine: Mearsheimer and Dugin

[ltlee1]

Main point: Ukraine as a member of NATO constitutes existential threat
to Russia.

[ltlee1]

Opposite view:

"The international security situation is now so grave and has escalated
to such a level that it can no longer be resolved by appeasing Russia or
seeking some kind of compromise peace. Instead, Russia must lose in
Ukraine, and must be seen to lose."
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-war-against-the-west-will-continue-until-putin-tastes-defeat/

[A. Filip]

Post by ltlee1
"The international security situation is now so grave and has escalated
to such a level that it can no longer be resolved by appeasing Russia or
seeking some kind of compromise peace. Instead, Russia must lose in
Ukraine, and must be seen to lose."
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-war-against-the-west-will-continue-until-putin-tastes-defeat/

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
There is "a small matter" of costs for USA+E.U. and gains by PRC.
I merely ask about costs and cost effectiveness.

USA could win in Afghanistan.
USA could not win in Afghanistan at acceptable costs.

[ltlee1]

The issue is both sides still view the issue through the Mackinder lens.
Neither Russia nor NATO nations trust each other.

[ltlee1]

"Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told a media conference
Monday that relations with Washington “are balancing on the brink of a
breakup” and reiterated that the war in Ukraine would last until Kyiv
drops its ambitions to join NATO and withdraws from the four regions
occupied by Russian forces.

In remarks suggesting Moscow is maintaining its tough negotiating
stance, Ryabkov said that “we simply imperatively need to get ... the
new U.S. administration to understand and acknowledge that without
resolving the problems that are the root causes of the crisis in
Ukraine, it will not be possible to reach an agreement.” "

[ltlee1]

Russian spin:

" Trump-Puttin summit agenda: Accepting US peace plan would end Ukraine
conflict on Moscow's terms
Trump to accept Putin's terms for Ukraine because Xi Jinping is coming
to Moscow

Xi Jinping accepted Vladimir Putin's invitation to Moscow for Victory
Day. If they form a military alliance, Ukraine is not going to be the
only loss for Trump.
..

Key Takeaways

Negotiations are ongoing, but the phrase "appropriate time” suggests
there is no consensus yet;
The Kyiv regime is in a position of "do as you're told,” since Trump
did not consult Zelensky before speaking with Putin;
Trump's disclosure of the talks suggests he is trying to cover up a
weak negotiating position.

Putin Won't Accept a Temporary Compromise on Ukraine

Based on the nature of the discussions, it appears that Putin seeks a
peace settlement that includes the demilitarization and "denazification”
of Ukraine, along with recognition of the current territorial realities.
Trump, on the other hand, is reportedly offering only temporary
measures: a ceasefire and recognition of Russia's control over "occupied
territories” without further concessions. Additionally, Putin may be
pushing Trump to renegotiate the global order.

The only real leverage against Russia would be pressuring China and
India to stop buying Russian oil, or persuading Saudi Arabia to lower
oil prices by increasing production. However, Saudi Arabia has actually
raised oil prices and is not eager to cut its revenues, while businesses
in China and India continue to find ways to purchase Russian oil. Time
is not on Trump's side, as Russia cannot be defeated in a war of
attrition due to its historical resilience and ability to mobilize
resources."

https://english.pravda.ru/world/161655-trump-putin-xi-jinping/

[ltlee1]

Another pair of news from the US and from Russia-

CNN:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/europe/ukraine-russia-trump-zelensky-intl/index.html

"“They (Ukraine) may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be
Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday,” Trump said. He
stressed that he also wanted to see a return on investment with US aid
for Ukraine, again floating the idea of a trade for Kyiv’s rare earth
minerals. The US president’s comments will likely delight the Kremlin,
which has illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions since launching its
full-scale invasion and seeks Ukraine’s total submission."

Pravda:
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/161659-klitschko-ukraine-russia-conflict/

"Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko suggested that the military conflict
between Russia and Ukraine could end within "a month or two.

He struggled to specify the conditions for the conclusion of the
conflict, but predicted that they would be difficult to call positive
for Ukraine.
..
According to Klitschko, elections will be held after the conflict ends,
potentially leading to a "fight to the death," with all political forces
participating with "roughly the same slogans."
..
Klitschko Calls Maintaining the Army an 'Expensive Pleasure'
..
Reports of Renewed Conflict Between Klitschko and Zelensky"

[bmoore]

Post by ltlee1
Another pair of news from the US and from Russia-
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/europe/ukraine-russia-trump-zelensky-intl/index.html
"“They (Ukraine) may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be
Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday,” Trump said. He
stressed that he also wanted to see a return on investment with US aid
for Ukraine, again floating the idea of a trade for Kyiv’s rare earth
minerals. The US president’s comments will likely delight the Kremlin,
which has illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions since launching its
full-scale invasion and seeks Ukraine’s total submission."
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/161659-klitschko-ukraine-russia-conflict/
"Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko suggested that the military conflict
between Russia and Ukraine could end within "a month or two.
He struggled to specify the conditions for the conclusion of the
conflict, but predicted that they would be difficult to call positive
for Ukraine.
..
According to Klitschko, elections will be held after the conflict ends,
potentially leading to a "fight to the death," with all political forces
participating with "roughly the same slogans."
..
Klitschko Calls Maintaining the Army an 'Expensive Pleasure'
..
Reports of Renewed Conflict Between Klitschko and Zelensky"

The supporters of Putin's brutal rule must love this.

[ltlee1]

Post by ltlee1
Another pair of news from the US and from Russia-
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/europe/ukraine-russia-trump-zelensky-intl/index.html
"“They (Ukraine) may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be
Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday,” Trump said. He
stressed that he also wanted to see a return on investment with US aid
for Ukraine, again floating the idea of a trade for Kyiv’s rare earth
minerals. The US president’s comments will likely delight the Kremlin,
which has illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions since launching its
full-scale invasion and seeks Ukraine’s total submission."
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/161659-klitschko-ukraine-russia-conflict/
"Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko suggested that the military conflict
between Russia and Ukraine could end within "a month or two.
He struggled to specify the conditions for the conclusion of the
conflict, but predicted that they would be difficult to call positive
for Ukraine.
..
According to Klitschko, elections will be held after the conflict ends,
potentially leading to a "fight to the death," with all political forces
participating with "roughly the same slogans."
..
Klitschko Calls Maintaining the Army an 'Expensive Pleasure'
..
Reports of Renewed Conflict Between Klitschko and Zelensky"

The Pravda report basically lists Putin's condition to end the war:
1. Re-election and likely a pro-Russia government.
2. Recognization of the provinces currently incorporated into Russia.
3. Ukraine de-militarized.

The CNN report could represent Trump's current focus.
Ukraine being Russia is not his primarily concern. He wants to get as
much as possible from Ukraine. He is currently sending the US Treasurer
to talk with Zelenskyy. Hopefully Zelenskyy would agree to turn more
Ukrainian assets to the US. Trump would then get Putin to accept these
promises while negotiating with Putin.

[ltlee1]

"‘Why Are We Handing Russia What It Wants?’: EU’s Chief Diplomat Blasts
U.S. Over Ukraine
..
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told allies in Brussels on
Wednesday that Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and reclaim its 1991
borders as part of a peace settlement were “unrealistic.” He also said
the U.S. would “no longer tolerate” European NATO members relying on
Washington for security.

The remarks, followed by a surprise phone call between Trump and Putin
in which the two agreed to enter peace talks, have stunned European
officials and raised concerns that Kyiv may be sidelined in discussions
about its own future.

“They [the U.S.] say that it’s not going to be NATO membership, but some
other security guarantees. Then the questions need to be answered by
everybody — what are these security guarantees, really?” said Kaja
Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, ahead of a NATO defense
ministers’ meeting."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/13/why-are-we-handing-russia-what-it-wants-eus-chief-diplomat-blasts-us-over-ukraine-a87993

[ltlee1]

"Frontline Ukrainian soldiers who were reached for comment in response
to recent diplomatic developments, including Donald Trump’s shock
announcement of February 12, hold out zero hope that the US president’s
intervention will end their invaded country’s nightmare.

..

Take Ihor from the 23rd Mechanized Brigade, known by his callsign
“Rogue,” who warned that any truce would likely be temporary.“I believe
there will be a pause and some kind of truce, but only for two or three
years, and then it will start again. That’s why we need to prepare for
the second round, even if a peace deal is signed.

“I think during Trump’s entire presidency we’ll be preparing and
building up our forces. Hopefully, during this time, Europe will wake up
and start supplying weapons properly. And when a new president comes to
power in the US, round two will begin.

As for Trump, Ihor said, “Honestly, he shocks me more and more every
day. He and Putin are practically kissing already. He’ll just hand over
the occupied territories to the Russians and start extracting whatever
natural resources we have left. We’ll become Trump’s quarry country.”

He added: “I think Trump is only interested in making money, and our war
is hurting that. He wants to end it not because he is a good person but
because it harms business – and also to show the world how tough he is.”

Dmytro Zhluktenko from the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems,
expressed deep skepticism about Trump’s proposed peace deal. Zhluktenko,
who helped establish one of Ukraine’s most successful charity funds,
Dzyga’s Paw, following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, went on to
join the army in 2024.

“From what we have seen so far, I don’t see any fairness or justice in
the peace deal being pushed by Trump’s team,” he said.

Beyond concerns over the deal itself, Zhluktenko criticized the
administration’s understanding of the conflict."
https://asiatimes.com/2025/02/frontline-soldiers-dont-believe-ukraine-will-get-a-just-peace/

[ltlee1]

Post by ltlee1
Another pair of news from the US and from Russia-
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/11/europe/ukraine-russia-trump-zelensky-intl/index.html
"“They (Ukraine) may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be
Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday,” Trump said. He
stressed that he also wanted to see a return on investment with US aid
for Ukraine, again floating the idea of a trade for Kyiv’s rare earth
minerals.

The rest of Trump's Peace-Price Plan:

"Ukraine shall allocate 50% of all revenue from resource extraction
licenses to the US, effectively granting Washington a financial stake in
Ukraine’s economy.
A Reconstruction Investment Fund will have exclusive authority over
issuing and managing resource extraction licenses.
The US will have the “right of first refusal” on the purchase of any
exported minerals, meaning Ukraine cannot sell them to other countries
without offering them to the US first.
Ukraine must waive its sovereign immunity, allowing the US to
legally seize Ukrainian assets if Ukraine fails to meet its financial
obligations.
The agreement classifies Ukraine’s resource transactions as
commercial, making them subject to US and international arbitration.
The US will have full auditing rights over Ukraine’s financial
records related to the Reconstruction Fund.
Ukraine must submit monthly financial reports to the US and appoint
an independent auditor, whose services must be paid for by Ukraine.
The agreement does not specify an expiration date, meaning US
financial interests in Ukraine’s resources could remain indefinitely.

In addition,
To prevent any legal disputes from Ukrainian officials, the agreement
specifies:

“The agreement will be governed by New York law, without regard to
principles of international and private conflict of laws.”

https://english.pravda.ru/world/161709-trump-ukraine-colonization/

[ltlee1]

"Ukraine Must Guarantee Its Own Security
A European Troop Commitment Is Not the Way to End This War—or Prevent
the Next One
Emma Ashford
February 18, 2025
At last week’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels, newly
minted U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that the position of
the U.S. government was that Ukraine will not join NATO. Although
greeted with horror by some in Washington and in European capitals,
Hegseth’s remarks were in fact more a public statement of reality than a
genuine change in policy. ... The risks of admitting Ukraine to the
alliance—reflected in widespread opposition to it in the United States,
Germany, and elsewhere—have long made this reality perfectly clear to
all.

Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently acknowledged
that NATO membership is probably not on the table. He has focused
instead on making a different case to Ukraine’s Western backers: if NATO
membership is not available, then his country needs equivalent security
guarantees from Europe or the United States to prevent Russia from
starting a new war in coming years. With the Trump administration
insisting that no U.S. troops be sent to Ukraine, the conversation in
European capitals is increasingly focused on whether and how European
states can provide “security guarantees” through their own deployments.

Yet there are reasons to doubt whether a European guarantee to provide
troops is feasible, especially without substantial U.S. involvement.
.."

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-must-guarantee-its-own-security